An assessment of the economic sustainability of Jatropha-based biodiesel initiatives: implications for labour and rural livelihoods

Crude oil is the single most utilized resource for energy and global demand is expected to increase 40 – 50 % that of current levels by the years 2025 to 2030. One renewable energy alternative is liquid biofuel, which currently is one of the fastest-growing markets for agricultural products globally. Whilst reducing environmental impact is well appreciated in developed nations, powerful drivers for stimulating the biofuel market in poorer regions of the world are socio-economic in nature. A plant of great contemporary importance is Jatropha curcas L. (Jatropha) which produces inedible oil seeds with good properties for biodiesel refinement. Promoters of Jatropha motivate that the benefits associated with this biodiesel feedstock are a solution to many of the developing world’s socio-economic problems as it generates high levels of rural employment, improves national balance of trade and stimulates both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors associated with the Jatropha-biodiesel production chain. Jatropha needs to be pruned often initially to establish higher yields, it isn’t at present harvested mechanically, it requires pesticide application and weeding, and the labour requirement during establishment is high. This labour requirement may contribute greatly to rural employment but at a significant labour cost which may undermine the profitability of growing Jatropha. This research aims to assess the economic sustainability of Jatropha-based biodiesel production as a suitable driver for rural development and in particular by modelling the maximum potential financial returns for labour. A spreadsheet based financial model was developed from life-cycle economic analysis of the Jatropha-biodiesel production chain to determine if income can support labour wages in southern Africa and India, under local wage legislation, at different yield, production cost and fuel price scenarios. The main assumption of the model was that the biodiesel sales price is proportional to the prevailing petro-diesel price. During the execution of the study it became apparent that the application of the conceptual model is strongest for India however, for comparative reasons, South Africa and Zambia were included. Results suggest that minimum legal wages in South Africa are too high to support production at the current fuel price. India and Zambia have the potential to generate profits but under specific circumstances; which are a complex function dominated by yield, labour wages, the petroleum-diesel price and the market opportunities for by-products. Financial capital is among many complex and almost unquantifiable assets to rural livelihoods, many of which compete for labour opportunity. In the 1990’s a sustainable livelihoods framework was developed by the UK Department for International Development (DFID). At the core of the framework is the “belief that people require a range of assets to achieve positive livelihood outcomes”, categorized into five different capital forms, namely; natural, human, financial, social and physical. The impacts that the biofuel industry can have on rural livelihoods in southern Africa and India can be considerable

Final report to RVO : institutional mapping & needs assessment of Ethiopia’s public seed sector services

In its attempt to transform agriculture, the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) focuses on increasing agricultural productivity, ensuring food and nutrition security, while promoting exports and import substitution in a sustainable manner. The Netherlands and Ethiopia collaborate to achieve, a.o. by a joint approach to transforming the Ethiopian seed sector. This project provides the basic analysis and recommendations for future activities to establish an efficient, well-regulated and dynamic seed sector that meets quality standards, adapts to climate change and market conditions, has transparent and inclusive governance and maintains biodiversity. The study focuses particularly on the needs of federal and regional seed authorities in terms of technical know-how, institutional capacity and mandates, skills, knowledge and resources

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

SummaryBackground Azithromycin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its immunomodulatoryactions. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.Methods In this randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19Therapy [RECOVERY]), several possible treatments were compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospitalwith COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients wererandomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus azithromycin 500 mg once perday by mouth or intravenously for 10 days or until discharge (or allocation to one of the other RECOVERY treatmentgroups). Patients were assigned via web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment andwere twice as likely to be randomly assigned to usual care than to any of the active treatment groups. Participants andlocal study staff were not masked to the allocated treatment, but all others involved in the trial were masked to theoutcome data during the trial. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treatpopulation. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.Findings Between April 7 and Nov 27, 2020, of 16 442 patients enrolled in the RECOVERY trial, 9433 (57%) wereeligible and 7763 were included in the assessment of azithromycin. The mean age of these study participants was65·3 years (SD 15·7) and approximately a third were women (2944 [38%] of 7763). 2582 patients were randomlyallocated to receive azithromycin and 5181 patients were randomly allocated to usual care alone. Overall,561 (22%) patients allocated to azithromycin and 1162 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days(rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·87–1·07; p=0·50). No significant difference was seen in duration of hospital stay (median10 days [IQR 5 to >28] vs 11 days [5 to >28]) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days(rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·98–1·10; p=0·19). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, nosignificant difference was seen in the proportion meeting the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilationor death (risk ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·87–1·03; p=0·24).Interpretation In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, azithromycin did not improve survival or otherprespecified clinical outcomes. Azithromycin use in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 should be restrictedto patients in whom there is a clear antimicrobial indication

An investors’ guide to Africa’s emerging seed markets : Report of the research on generating seed market intelligence

Fragmented market intelligence is the major barrier to investment in Africa’s emerging seed markets, according to participants in our June 23rd conference session on An investor guide for Africa. There is significant demand for a service of assessing the attractiveness of emerging seed markets in Africa for (impact) investment. The service should go beyond collating relevant information from diverse sources, by interpreting it and making informed recommendations to (impact) investors. We intend for our report to offer a substantiated value proposition for an entrepreneur or institution interested in prototyping and anchoring this service. We do this with the view to increase intelligence on Africa’s emerging seed markets. This report shares what Wageningen Centre for Development Innovation has uncovered through research about seed market intelligence in Africa. The research has been conducted mostly online involving literature review, key informant interviews with 20 leaders in government, industry, science, and civil society and panel discussion about the actual intelligence and minimum viable product for a service they require in making investment decisions. Among them were respondents from: the African Union Commission; the regional economic community COMESA; national, regional, and multinational seed companies; development finance institutes and commercial lenders; international agricultural research institutes, other knowledge institutes, and consultants; the African Seed Trade Association (AFSTA); and an International NGO. The research revealed several useful platforms, indices, and reports offering data for indicators of relevance to investors. Sources of market intelligence for the entire African region are included in the report. However, each does not cover all countries and dimensions of interest. We assessed 12 of them and learned that The African Seed Access Index (TASAI), Access to Seeds Index of the World Benchmarking Alliance, and Enabling the Business of Agriculture index of the World Bank overlap in 17 countries where data from CAADP Biennial Reviews are also available. These countries across Western and Central, and Eastern and Southern Africa offer the most readily available information for making investment decisions. Our research also resulted in the convergence of multiple indicators around four categories. This includes those that assess: (i.) seed sector performance; (ii.) the potential absorption of crop harvests in outputs markets; (iii.) current progress against targets for development impact; and (iv.) other variables of the country context. Cascading from that level of aggregation are three topics (sub-categories) in each. For the seed sector these include indicators of seed demand, seed supply and seed regulatory function. For output markets these include the size or value of these markets, the level of investments made in farm productivity, and organization of producers in leveraging economies of scale. For impact these include different indicators of poverty reduction, food security and nutrition, and climate change adaptation and mitigation and biodiversity conservation, management, and use. And lastly, for country context these include demographics, political and economic stability, and infrastructure. A mosaic of data is available from the indices and other sources of information mentioned above. Important to our efforts to collate these data are their availability in the public domain. Our research offers a substantiated value proposition and minimum viable product for the service. What it falls short of doing is outlining a viable business model for anchoring this service in the seed sector. Should an entrepreneur or institution be interested to pilot the service in Africa, we advise that they thoroughly consider the business model, including partnerships and revenue streams. A critical resource (and cost in the model) includes expertise on seed, seed business, and/or seed systems. Without this knowledge, based on our determination of the minimum viable product, accurate interpretations of the data cannot be made reliably. Collation is not enough to inform investment decisions and (impact) investors are looking for qualitative recommendations as well. We offer some cues for the curation of these data

Final report to RVO : institutional mapping & needs assessment of Ethiopia’s public seed sector services

In its attempt to transform agriculture, the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) focuses on increasing agricultural productivity, ensuring food and nutrition security, while promoting exports and import substitution in a sustainable manner. The Netherlands and Ethiopia collaborate to achieve, a.o. by a joint approach to transforming the Ethiopian seed sector. This project provides the basic analysis and recommendations for future activities to establish an efficient, well-regulated and dynamic seed sector that meets quality standards, adapts to climate change and market conditions, has transparent and inclusive governance and maintains biodiversity. The study focuses particularly on the needs of federal and regional seed authorities in terms of technical know-how, institutional capacity and mandates, skills, knowledge and resources